| アブストラクト |
Why are predictions of tomorrow's weather sometimes wrong? And if short-range weather predictions can go wrong, how can we have confidence in predictions of climate decades into the future? In this lecture I will outline the similarities and differences between weather and climate prediction, I will discuss the origin of uncertainties in weather and climate prediction, and I will describe the development of probabilistic prediction tools which try to estimate the impact of these uncertainties. I will conclude by asking whether manmade climate change is something we should believe in. |
